Risk of incident chronic kidney disease in metabolically healthy obesity and metabolically unhealthy normal weight: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies have reported inconsistent results about the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people with metabolically healthy obesity (MHO). We designed this systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of developing CKD in people with MHO and metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW). We used a predefined search strategy to retrieve eligible studies from multiple databases up to June 20, 2022. Random-effects model meta-analyses were implied to estimate the overall hazard ratio (HR) of incident CKD in obesity phenotypes. Eight prospective cohort studies, including approximately 5 million participants with a median follow-up ranging between 3 and 14 years, were included in this meta-analysis. Compared to the metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), the mean differences in cardiometabolic and renal risk factors in MHO, MUNW, and metabolically unhealthy obesity (MUO) were evaluated with overall HR of 1.42, 1.49, and 1.84, respectively. Compared to MHNW, the mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were significantly lower, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL), blood pressure, blood glucose, and triglycerides were higher in MHO and MUNW. In conclusion, MHO and MUNW are not benign conditions and pose a higher risk for incident CKD. Obesity, whether in the presence or absence of metabolic health, is a risk factor for CKD.