Global oil market: an outlook to 2030. How will the balance of supply and demand change over the next ten years?

The crisis of 2020 became a 'perfect storm' for the oil market, throwing it in disarray. At the start of 2021, as the pandemic subsides, hopes of recovery re-emerge. Yet, the calculations, performed by the authors show, that under varying scenarios of economic restoration, the global demand, after a slight bounceback from the plunge of 2020, inevitably turns for a stable decline since 2023 or 2026 (depending on the scenario), without ever reaching the levels of 2018-2019, which indicates the historical peak of oil demand. At the backdrop of newly found abundancy of supply, brought about by technologies behind 'shale revolution', this entails fundamental reformatting of the principles of the functioning of the oil market, mainly the increasing importance of political factors for the functioning of the oil market, mainly the energy legislations and OPEC+ agreement. [Received: April 13, 2021; Accepted: March 27, 2023]