Modeling a traffic light warning system for acute respiratory infections

The high morbidity of acute respiratory infections constitutes a crucial global health bur-den. In particular, for SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical intervention geared to enforce so-cial distancing policies, vaccination, and treatments will remain an essential part of public health policies to mitigate and control disease outbreaks. However, the implementation of mitigation measures directed to increase social distancing when the risk of contagion is a complex enterprise because of the impact of NPI on beliefs, political views, economic is-sues, and, in general, public perception. The way of implementing these mitigation policies studied in this work is the so-called traffic-light monitoring system that attempts to regu-late the application of measures that include restrictions on mobility and the size of meet-ings, among other non-pharmaceutical strategies. Balanced enforcement and relaxation of measures guided through a traffic-light system that considers public risk perception and economic costs may improve the public health benefit of the policies while reducing their cost. We derive a model for the epidemiological traffic-light policies based on the best response for trigger measures driven by the risk perception of people, instantaneous re-production number, and the prevalence of a hypothetical acute respiratory infection. With numerical experiments, we evaluate and identify the role of appreciation from a hypothet-ical controller that could opt for protocols aligned with the cost due to the burden of the underlying disease and the economic cost of implementing measures. As the world faces new acute respiratory outbreaks, our results provide a methodology to evaluate and de-velop traffic light policies resulting from a delicate balance between health benefits and economic implications.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.