DEFORESTATION DYNAMICS IN BIOSPHERE RESERVE OF MANGROVES: EVALUATION AND FUTURE SCENARIO

Mangroves provide various ecosystem services to society but are affected by deforestation, resource exploitation and land use. This study analyses the dynamics of deforestation of mangroves in Chocohuital, Chiapas, Mexico from 2000 to 2019 and provides a future scenario using Landsat imagery (5TM and 8 OLI) and the Markov Chain model. Results indicate a loss of 51 ha of mangroves from 2000 to 2019. The deforestation rates were-0.11% for mangroves,-0.37% for pastureland and-21.44% for the jungle, from 2000 to 2019. The transitions indicate gains in the surface of new settlements and more pastureland, while the losses were for mangroves, forests, and bodies of water. Future scenarios indicate 0.11 probability of transitioning from mangrove areas to agriculture and 0.5 to pastureland. Therefore, it is imperative to analyse alternative future scenarios of mangroves to optimize their conservation and development through proactive policy planning, especially in protected natural area.