Comparative analysis for different vehicle powertrains in terms of energy-saving potential and cost-effectiveness in China

Technology evaluation of vehicle powertrains is the basis for policymakers and automotive manufacturers to make technical decisions. However, there is a research gap in comparative studies on different powertrain technologies under uniform assumptions (dynamic performance and test-driving cycles) for light-duty vehicles in China. To fill these gaps, this paper proposes an innovative technology evaluation model of the powertrains for the energy-saving cost-effectiveness of powertrains. The results are as follows: as the electrification degree of the powertrain technology increases, its curb mass and direct manufacturing cost increase, while its comprehensive fuel consumption gradually decreases. Changes in curb mass and direct manufacturing cost are the combined effect of powertrain electrification upgrades and engine simplification. ICEV has limited fuel-saving potential and poor cost-effectiveness. HEV can achieve more significant fuel savings with minor cost increases and has the highest cost-effectiveness. PHEV50, REEV180, and BEV400 have high fuel economies, but their cost-effectiveness is poor due to the high cost of the battery system. In the short term, the Chinese government should encourage automotive manufacturers to increase their research and development investment in HEVs to replace ICEVs. In the long term, the government should promote battery technologies to reduce the direct manufacturing cost of NEVs.