Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Black Carbon from Severe Forest Fires in Siberia to the Arctic Basin

This work is part of a study on the impact of black carbon (BC) transfer from various sources to the Arctic on climate change in the region. The main objectives are to develop software for analyzing the Lagrangian transport of air particles; assessing the deposition of aerosol particles by precipitation and the concentration of particles in the atmosphere; and obtaining, for specific conditions of atmospheric circulation during severe fires in the years of maximum reduction in the Arctic sea ice area, estimates of the relative residence time of air particles emitted by these fires over the Arctic Basin (AB), as well as the proportion of BC deposited in the AB from fires. This software package contains a module for calculating Lagrangian trajectories from a 4-dimensional wind array (u, v, omega, t), which contains horizontal wind components and an analog of vertical speed available from reanalysis, as well as modules for the postprocessing of the found trajectories, which allow us to obtain in a given area the residence time estimates, 3-dimensional BC concentration, and BC deposition on the surface, also using reanalysis data and some empirical constants. Since the main decrease in the Arctic sea ice area occurred in 2 years, 2007 and 2012, it was supposed to analyze the fires of these years; however, in 2007, there were no great fires, and in 2012 one fire was much larger than the others (K-217, March-June). This fire was chosen for the experiments: several sets of trajectories were obtained for it, corresponding to various options for choosing the initial conditions, and estimates were obtained for the fraction of trajectories that passed over the Arctic basin, the time spent there, and the fraction of BC deposited in the AB. Together, these estimates led to the conclusion that Siberian fires can hardly be the leading cause of the accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice.