Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on temporal trends of biological indicators of autoimmunity

Background and objective: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with the onset of autoimmune conditions, but whether this relationship is causal remains unknown, partly because robust evidence based on the detection of autoantibodies is lacking. This study explored the potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the temporal trends of autoimmunity. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive autoimmune tests performed at one central laboratory at a University hospital, operating services for 18 other hospitals and clinical laboratories in Belgium, from January 01, 2015 to May 31, 2022. Longitudinal changes in the positivity rates of autoimmunity tests were analyzed, i.e. before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 11, 2020). The tests notably included the detection of autoantibodies associated with type 1 diabetes, thyroid diseases, connective tissue diseases, antiphospholipid syndrome, vasculitis and other organ-specific conditions. Kendall rank correlation test was applied to assess temporal trends. Results: Over a period of 89 months, a total of 301,720 consecutive tests for 24 different autoantibodies among 87,674 unique patients were performed (87% adults, 68% women, mean age 44 +/- 20 years). Overall, 52,862 (18%) tests returned positive, with positivity rates for each test ranging between 1% and 46%. No increase in the positivity rate of autoimmunity tests was observed after the start of the pandemic. Conclusion: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was not associated with increased positivity rates of a large panel of autoimmune tests. Whether the higher incidence of autoimmune disorders associated with COVID-19 reflects detection bias or reverse causality, or is linked to seronegative autoimmune disorders requires further investigation.