Invasive Pest and Invasive Host: Where Might Spotted-Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) and American Black Cherry (Prunus serotina) Cross Paths in Europe?

Both spotted-wing drosophila (SWD, Drosophila suzukii) and American black cherry (ABC, Prunus serotina) are invasive species with major deleterious effects on forest ecosystems in Europe. ABC, a host of SWD, can sustain large populations of SWD, and SWD in turn can constrain the regeneration of its host. Here, we examined the range shifts of SWD, ABC, and their range overlap under future scenarios using range shift models. In the current-future scenarios, both SWD and ABC were predicted to undergo potential range expansions in Europe, suggesting that their invasion risks might increase in the future. Climate change might be the major driver of range shifts of both the pest and host, followed by land-use and host availability changes; therefore, mitigating future climate change might be key for controlling their future invasions in Europe. The relative contribution of climate and host availability to shaping the potential ranges of invasive species might not only vary with their feeding habitats (polyphagy/oligophagy) but also with the relative abundance of hosts among available host reservoirs. Range overlap under current and future scenarios was mainly observed in the UK, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, and Eastern Europe; this area is of high and low priority for the control of SWD and ABC, respectively.