Application of community-based system dynamics for the management of rural households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake

The drying of Urmia Lake, the largest inland lake in Iran, is one of the greatest ecological disasters in Iran, and it was repeatedly included on the agenda of national and international conventions. The aim of the current study was to apply the system dynamics methodology to analyse rural households' vulnerability to the Urmia Lake drying. The result of the first phase (strategy collection) indicated that five strategies were proposed by stakeholders: 'To reduce the population of the region', 'To reduce the crop area and agricultural activities', 'To modify the cultivation pattern and growing crops with low water needs', 'To use new irrigation systems' and 'To create alternative agricultural livelihoods with less dependence on damaged resources'. The second phase used Vensim software and indicated that the best strategy to reduce households' vulnerability to the drying of Urmia Lake was 'To create alternative agricultural livelihoods with less dependence on damaged resources'.