Revealing Regime Shifts and Their Impact on Social-Ecological Systems: a Case Study on Iran

This study examines the impact of human activities during the Anthropocene era on social-ecological systems globally, with specific focus on Iran. The investigation identifies regime shifts and their effects on ecosystem services, aiming to understand the causes and mechanisms behind these shifts. The key regime shifts observed in the studied provinces are the reduction of groundwater levels and river flows. Various factors, such as decreasing rainfall, increasing temperatures, unauthorized wells, and overexploitation of groundwater, contribute to these modifications. Network analysis reveals several drivers in the network, including non-implementation of land use planning, urbanization, poverty, dam construction and water transfer projects, inappropriate water allocation and distribution policies, and population increase. These regime shifts significantly impact multiple ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, water production, biodiversity, air quality regulation, food production, aesthetic and recreational values, and animal husbandry. Recognizing the ecosystem services at risk and understanding how they deteriorate in social-ecological systems inform managers about the main consequences of regime shifts in Iran. Thus, knowledge of regime shifts and their operation in different scales of social-ecological systems is crucial for future management planning. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of recognizing regime shifts in social-ecological systems, understanding their drivers, and developing appropriate measures to adapt to the new state of the system. By doing so, effective management planning and adaptation to new social-ecological conditions can be achieved, ensuring the maintenance of ecosystem services for human well-being and environmental sustainability not only in Iran but also elsewhere.