The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria*

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating. Job losses, negative growth rates, and increased poverty have all followed rising infection rates. The economic costs have been especially challenging for many piracy-prone countries. The international monetary fund anticipates sizable unemployment increases in many Indo-Pacific countries. Deeper and more durable economic damage may materialize in some West African countries. Often, negative economic shocks produce surges in crime, both on land and at sea. The present study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 on maritime pirate attacks in two countries, Nigeria, located in the Gulf of Guinea, and Indonesia, located in the Indo-Pacific. We employ monthly and quarterly data on government measures to prevent infection, sea-piracy incidents, and economic conditions to explore whether the subsequent economic fallout produced more maritime crime. We do not find clear evidence of this relationship in Indonesia. However, COVID-19-induced stringency measure does appear to have increased sea-piracy incidents in Nigeria.