Driving forces behind the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land-use and land-cover change: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China

The impact of socioeconomic development on land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in river basins varies spatially and temporally. Exploring the spatiotemporal evolutionary trends and drivers of LUCC under regional disparities is the basis for the sustainable development and management of basins. In this study, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) in China was selected as a typical basin, and the WRB was divided into the upstream of the Weihe River Basin (UWRB), the midstream of the Weihe River Basin (MWRB), the downstream of the Weihe River Basin (DWRB), the Jinghe River Basin (JRB), and the Luohe River Basin (LRB). Based on land-use data (cultivated land, forestland, grassland, built-up land, bare land, and water body) from 1985 to 2020, we analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LUCC in the WRB using a land-use transfer matrix and a dynamic change model. The driving forces of LUCC in the WRB in different periods were detected using the GeoDetector, and the selected influencing factors included meteorological factors (precipitation and temperature), natural factors (elevation, slope, soil, and distance to rivers), social factors (distance to national highway, distance to railway, distance to provincial highway, and distance to expressway), and human activity factors (population density and gross domestic product (GDP)). The results indicated that the types and intensities of LUCC conversions showed considerable disparities across different sub-basins, where complex conversions among cultivated land, forestland, and grassland occurred in the LRB, JRB, and UWRB, with higher dynamic change before 2000. The conversion of other land-use types to built-up land was concentrated in the UWRB, MWRB, and DWRB, with substantial increases after 2000. Additionally, the driving effects of the influencing factors on LUCC in each sub-basin also exhibited distinct diversity, with the LRB and JRB being influenced by the meteorological and social factors, and the UWRB, MWRB, and DWRB being driven by human activity factors. Moreover, the interaction of these influencing factors indicated an enhanced effect on LUCC. This study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects of socioeconomic status on LUCC in the WRB under regional differences, contributing to the sustainable development of the whole basin by managing sub-basins according to local conditions.