Assessing vulnerability to cyclones in coastal Odisha using fuzzy logic integrated AHP: towards effective risk management

The frequency of tropical cyclones has increased across the globe due to climate change in recent years. The eastern coastal plains of India have witnessed significant rise in frequency and severity of tropical cyclones during past decades, making it essential to do a comprehensive vulnerability assessment and implement effective risk reduction measures. Therefore, this study seeks to analyse the spatial vulnerability of tropical cyclones in coastal Odisha using geospatial techniques and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. Seventeen spatial criteria within physical, social, and mitigation aspects has been used to assess the vulnerability to tropical cyclones. Result shows that Baleswar and parts of Bhadrak and Kendrapara districts are the most vulnerable regions to tropical cyclones. In terms of physical and social vulnerabilities, about 40% area of Odisha falls under high and very highly vulnerable zones to tropical cyclones. Overall, about 41% of the area comes under high and very high vulnerability without mitigation capacity, but integration of mitigation capacity may reduce it to 21%, which emphasize the significance of mitigation measures in reducing vulnerability to cyclones. The results may be helpful in spatial planning for effective cyclone risk management and implementing mitigation measures to improve cyclone resilience in the region.