Modeling and descriptive analysis of dengue cases in Palu City, Indonesia

Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases, especially in tropical and sub-tropical countries, including Indonesia. This disease is transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes which are predominant in the human environment. The high transmission of the dengue virus generally occurs in urban and semi-urban areas, considering that the aspects contributing to the transmission of dengue are mobility and high population density. As the capital city of Central Sulawesi Province with high mobility, Palu City has the highest distribution of dengue cases and is included in the category of dengue endemic areas. Interestingly, Palu is included in the non-seasonal zone, which is associated with the irregularity of the dengue outbreak every year. Here, we study the irregular dengue epidemic in Palu. We propose to use the cumulative generator operator to derive a solution for the SEIR-SI model describing the spread of dengue in Palu. The linear combination of the eight-logistic model was chosen to fit the weekly cumulative data of dengue cases from 2014 to 2016. The time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number (REff) is obtained as an early warning to detect the infection trend with one week time-lag from REff. The result is vital for the weekly control and prevention of dengue transmission based on only the weekly infection data.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.