Evolution characteristics of rural carbon emissions in Northwest China from 2006 to 2019

China is faced with significant challenges in simultaneously promoting rural development and reducing carbon emissions. However, the issue of quantifying and addressing carbon emissions in rural areas has not been adequately addressed. Accurately quantifying these emissions is crucial for developing effective strategies to reduce carbon output. In this study, the historical evolution and spatial distribution of rural carbon emissions in northwestern China from 2006 to 2019 were evaluated across five key sectors: residential energy consumption, agricultural machinery, solid waste management, planting practices, and breeding industry activities. During this period, total carbon emissions in rural areas of northwest China steadily increased from 60.15Mt to 83.49Mt at an annual growth rate of 2.55%. Given the complex interplay between economic and social factors driving these changes, the future trajectory of rural carbon emissions remains uncertain. To analyze the underlying drivers behind regional variations in carbon emissions over time, we constructed an LMDI model which revealed that economic growth primarily contributed to regional increases in carbon output. Furthermore, due to a remarkable annual growth rate of 35.17% in renewable energy generation (such as photovoltaic and wind power), it can be inferred that if renewable electricity were included within our calculations for carbon emission statistics, northwest China's rural areas achieved a state of being effectively 'carbon-neutral' by 2019 solely from a production-based perspective.