Spatiotemporal evolution and trend prediction of regional water-energy-food-ecology system vulnerability: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

The vulnerability study of the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is of great significance for ensuring water, energy, food, and ecological security. In this study, the concept of vulnerability of WEFE systems is explained, and then its mechanism is analyzed. Based on the vulnerability concept of the WEFE system and combined with the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptability (ESA) capacity model, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the vulnerability of the WEFE system. The cross-efficiency data envelopment analysis (CE-DEA) method, which considers both self-evaluation and peer evaluation efficiency, is used to calculate the vulnerability from 2005 to 2020. The spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics are explored using the hot spot analysis and spatial autocorrelation model. The results show that the overall vulnerability of the WEFE system in the YREB has fluctuated and increased during the study period, with a spatial pattern characterized by "high in the middle and low on both sides." Over time, the spatial evolution tends to be centralized and non-equilibrium, forming a relatively independent spatial pattern.