Burdens of stomach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2030 in China: Findings from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Background Stomach and esophageal cancer exhibit high mor-bidity and mortality rate in China, resulting in substantial disease burdens. It is imperative to identify the temporal trends of stom -ach and esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2019 and project future trends until 2030, which can provide valuable information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.\Methods We collected and analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) between 1990 and 2019, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs rate. We also calculated and reported the proportion of mortality and DA-LYs attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different re-gions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to proj-ect future trends until 2030. Results The new cases, deaths and DALYs of stomach and esoph-ageal cancer increased from 1990 to 2019. However, the ASIR, ASMR and age-standardised DALYs rates for stomach and esoph-ageal cancer all decreased during the same period. These changes may be related to risks, such as smoking and diet. Furthermore, we utilised the projection model to estimate that the ASIR and ASMR of stomach and esophageal cancer among females will likely follow steady downward trends, while the ASMR of stomach can-cer among males is expected to exhibit a significant decline. How-ever, the ASIR of stomach and esophageal cancer and the ASMR of esophageal cancer among males are projected to display slight upward trends until 2030.Conclusions The analysis of stomach and esophageal cancer trends in China from 1990 to 2030 reveals a general decline. How-ever, it is crucial to acknowledge the persistent high burden of both cancers in the country. Adopting healthy lifestyle practices, including the reduction of tobacco and alcohol intake, avoidance of moldy foods and increased consumption of fresh fruits and veg-etables can contribute to mitigating the risk of stomach and esoph-ageal cancer. Significantly, the formulation and implementation of well-founded and efficacious public health policies are imperative for alleviating the disease burden in China.