Development of a nomogram model to predict malignant vasovagal syncope in Chinese children

Objective: Vasovagal syncope (VVS) is the commonest form of syncope, and malignant VVS draws substantial attention due to its life-threatening cardiac asystolic risk. This study aimed to explore the predictive role of a wide panel of clinical indicators for malignant VVS in children, and further to develop a nomogram model. Methods: This is a retrospective case-control study. VVS is diagnosed based on head-up tilt test (HUTT). STATA software (version 14.0) was used for statistical analysis, and effect sizes are expressed as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: Total 370 children with VVS were analyzed, and of them 16 children had malignant VVS. Sixteen malignant VVS and 64 non-malignant VVS were matched on age and sex by a 1:4 propensity scores matching method. Mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH) and standard deviation of average RR intervals milliseconds (SDANN) were significantly and independently associated with malignant VVS after adjusting for confounders, with OR reaching 1.437 (95% CI: 1.044 to 1.979; P = 0.026) and 1.035 (95% CI: 1.003 to 1.068; P = 0.029), respectively. Calibration and discrimination analyses revealed that the addition of MCH and SDANN can enhance model performance. Then, a nomogram to predict malignant VVS was developed using general characteristics and two above significant factors, and higher values in medical history, number of syncope, MCH and SDANN were associated with a greater risk of malignant VVS. Conclusion: MCH and SDANN were two promising factors for the development of malignant VVS, and modeling of significant factors in a nomogram can provide strong reference to aid clinical decision-making.