A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma patients following ablation therapy

Introduction This study aimed to assess factors affecting the prognosis of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing ablation therapy and create a nomogram for predicting their 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS).Methods The research included 881 early-stage HCC patients treated at Beijing You'an Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, from 2014 to 2022. A nomogram was developed using independent prognostic factors identified by Lasso and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Its predictive performance was evaluated with concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results The study identified age, tumor number, tumor size, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), international normalized ratio (INR), and prealbumin (Palb) as independent prognostic risk factors. The nomogram achieved C-indices of 0.683 (primary cohort) and 0.652 (validation cohort), with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.776, 0.779, and 0.822 (3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS, primary cohort) and 0.658, 0.724, and 0.792 (validation cohort), indicating that the nomogram possessed strong discriminative ability. Calibration and DCA curves further confirmed the nomogram's predictive accuracy and clinical utility. The nomogram can effectively stratify patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, particularly identifying high-risk patients.Conclusions The established nomogram in our study can provide precise prognostic information for HCC patients following ablation treatment and enable physicians to accurately identify high-risk individuals and facilitate timely intervention.