A Novel Risk Assessment Model for Prefabricated Building Construction Based on Combination Weight and Catastrophe Progression Method

To reduce the construction risk of prefabricated building projects, a prefabricated building construction risk assessment index system with five first-level indicators and 21 second-level indicators was established based on human, machine, material, management, and environmental factors. By combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), CRiteria Importance through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), and catastrophe theory, a risk assessment model of prefabricated building construction based on a combination weighting and catastrophe progression method was constructed. The effectiveness of the assessment model using the combination weighting and catastrophe progression method was verified through case analysis. The results show the following: (1) The quality of the prefabricated components, the standardization degree of the prefabricated components, and the environment of the installation working space in the construction risk assessment indicators of prefabricated buildings obtained by the AHP-CRITIC weighting method have higher weights. (2) Four prefabricated construction enterprises under China State Construction Corporation are evaluated, and the evaluation results effectively evaluate the project risk situation before an accident occurred, achieving the goal of improving the risk management efficiency. (3) The AHPCRITIC weighting method can reflect the fuzziness of the construction risk of the evaluated project, effectively reduce information loss, and thus make the evaluation results more accurate. The conclusions have important practical significance for improving the construction risk management of prefabricated buildings.