Fourfold Increase in Climate Contributions to Grassland Soil Organic Carbon Variabilities and Its Policy Implications

Grassland is one of the largest terrestrial ecosystems and contains approximately 20 percent of the world's soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. A relatively small SOC change can cause large impacts on the global climate. However, the contributions from climatic factors to SOC changes, relative to other natural and anthropogenic factors, remains controversial. Here, we evaluate the relative contributions of climate, landscape, and management factors to SOC variabilities using variance decomposition coupled with generalized additive models and resampled soil data from the original Second National Soil Survey profile locations across the temperate grasslands in northern Inner Mongolia in 2022. Our results indicate that climate contributions increased from 13.7% in the 1980s to 65.5% in 2022, compared to decreased contributions from landscape and management factors. The relative contributions from landscape and management factors decreased from 37.5% and 48.8% in the 1980s, respectively, to 19.2% and 15.4% in 2022. This shows that the climate has shifted from being a minor contributor to a primary controller of grassland SOC variability over the 40 years since the 1980s. We, therefore, argue that future grassland management and policy regimes should become climate-centric, while the current institutional momentum for grassland conservation and restoration should be maintained.