Effective pathways for energy conservation and emission reduction in iron and steel industry towards peaking carbon emissions in China: Case study of Henan

As the world's largest steel producer, China's iron and steel industry is facing an urgent task need for energy conservation and emission reduction. Discussion of the green and low-carbon transformation of the iron and steel industry at the provincial level is critical for achieving China's 'Dual-carbon target'. To explore the road-map towards peaking carbon emissions of the iron and steel industry, a comprehensive assessment framework, based on steel demand and scrap recycling model alongside energy consumption-carbon emission-air pollutant emission model, was developed. Five scenarios were designed to quantify the potential for energy conservation and emission reduction of the iron and steel industry in Henan Province. The material flow analysis model predicted that the total steel demand will peak at 36.06 Mt in 2020, and the steel demand of main sub-sectors such as construction, machinery, vehicle, appliances and others will peak before 2024. Driven by the boom in depreciation scrap, future steel scrap resources and scrap ratio will show a significant growth trend. By 2035, the integrated scenario will show the most significant potential, and the emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, and VOCs will decrease by 55.2%, 54%, 33.3%, 16.6%, 43%, 36.4%, and 31.8%, compared to that in the business-as-usual scenario. The results also indicated that advanced technology implementation poses an advantage in mitigation potential before 2025, while electric arc furnace promotion and hydrogen substitution will be the main forces for energy conservation and emission reduction in the iron and steel industry from a long-term perspective. Finally, several policy recommendations regarding the transformation direction for the gov-ernment and steelmakers were proposed here.