Remotely sensed land-cover change and floodplain disturbance following upstream-migrating river avulsions in tropical rainforests

The displacement of a river to a new position within its adjacent floodplain is called avulsion, and here we examine how a newly recognized style, called retrogradational avulsion, affects the surrounding floodplain in tropical rainforests using remote sensing. Retrogradational avulsions begin with a channel blockage that causes self-propagating upstream dechannelization and flooding. While this flooding results in vegetation die-off and floodplain sedimentation, few quantitative measurements of disturbance by retrogradational avulsions exist. Here, we first focus on land-cover change following a single retrogradational avulsion in Papua New Guinea from 2012 to 2021. During the avulsion, the river dechannelized 892 m upstream, and the parent channel width doubled. Using maximum likelihood image classification, we observed healthy vegetation fluctuated around 4.3 km(2), vegetation regrowth peaked in 2017 at 3.2 km(2), dead vegetation peaked in 2013 at 2.1 km(2), and visible extent of deposited sediment was greatest in 2015 at 0.44 km(2). We also examined 19 other retrogradational avulsions in Papua New Guinea and South America using NDVI. The area of floodplain disturbance (i.e., vegetation die-off and possible sedimentation) for each avulsion ranged from <1 to >13 km(2) and scaled with the dechannelization area. Comparing our plan-view disturbance results with FABDEM digital-elevation data and ICESat-2 surface elevation measurements, we hypothesize floodplain disturbance extent is a function of topographic relief. Our results also suggest that retrogradational avulsions, on average, perturb larger areas of forest compared to blowdowns, suggesting this might be an important disturbance regime that influences gap-filling regeneration in tropical rainforests.