Commodity terms of trade co-movement: Global and regional factors 

In this paper, we estimate a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to extract the latent factors that capture the commodity terms of trade co-movement across 93 countries. We decompose each country's commodity terms of trade into a global component and a regional component, depending upon the country is a commodity exporter that primarily exports fuel or non-fuel commodities. We find that the global factor can explain the bulk of terms of trade fluctuations in commodity non-exporters and fuel commodity exporters, while the regional factor is more influential among non-fuel commodity exporters. The global factor is shown to co-move with fluctuations in the global commodity market, as well as with measures of global demand and uncertainty. We further analyze the impact of shocks in factor volatilities on a sample of emerging market economies, demonstrating the different economic consequences of shocks on global and regional factors.