External shocks, global value chain transmission and China's export fluctuation

Using inter-country input-output model, this paper deconstructs the fluctuation of China's export growth rate from the perspective of global value chains. The results indicate that, China's export growth rate holds a significant "transitional fluctuations" feature under the mirror statistical method. Overall, from 2007 to 2011, the contribution of global value chains embedding on the fluctuation of China's export growth rate is biggest. From Sub-industry perspective, the contri-bution of technology-intensive manufacturing industry on the fluctuation of China's export growth rate is extremely high, the contribution rate of primary industry is relatively low.