Forward contract prices of electricity Nord Pool market: calibration and jump approximation

This paper focuses on the forward contract price under a mean-reverting jump-diffusion electricity model and the Grandell idea. Based on historical spot prices from the electricity Nord Pool market, model parameters are calibrated under different conditions. First, we remove the jump data and calibrate the seasonal model parameters using least squares and Newton-Raphson methods. Then, the jump and the other parameters are obtained by the MLE method. Moreover, the first passage time is derived as a probability function and used it as an appropriate tool to know the behavior of the electricity spot price. Ultimately, months and quarters ahead forward data are achieved by the forward contract formula.