The FLUKA cross sections for cosmic-ray leptons and uncertainties on current positron predictions

Cosmic-ray (CR) antiparticles have the potential to reveal signatures of unexpected astrophysical processes and even new physics beyond the Standard Model. Recent CR detectors have provided accurate measurements of the positron flux, revealing the so-called positron excess at high energies. However, the uncertainties related to the modelling of the local positron flux are still very high, significantly affecting our models of positron emission from pulsars and current dark matter searches. In this work, we report a new set of cross sections for positron and electron production derived from the FLUKA code. We compare them with the most extended cross-section data -sets and show the impact of neglecting the positron production from heavy CRs. Then, we review the most significant sources of uncertainties in our current estimations of the secondary positron flux at Earth and examine for the first time the impact of considering the spiral arm structure of the Galaxy in these estimations. Finally, we provide state-of-the-art predictions of the local positron flux and discuss the limitations of our dark matter searches with positrons and difficulties to determine the contribution from pulsars to the positron flux at low energies.