Potential adoption of oil palm agroforestry in Sungai Jernih Village, Jambi, Indonesia

About 3.4 million hectares of oil palm ( Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) plantations occupied the forest area in Indonesia by 2019. The enrichment of monoculture oil palm using forest tree species became one of the solutions toward the forest transition processes within a target period associated with the social forestry program. Within this context, smallholder farmers acquired the right to manage oil palm plantations inside forest areas through social forestry permits. Smallholder farmers had to plant and maintain 100 forest tree species per hectare. Research on oil palm agroforestry adoption focused on the factors and barriers to the adoption process and little about the outcome of the adoption. Therefore, this research aimed to predict smallholders' peak adoption of oil palm agroforestry. Data was collected using Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with 133 members of the forest farmer group in Sungai Jernih Village, Jambi Province. Data were analysed using Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (ADOPT) to predict peak level adoption and the time to reach peak adoption. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess changes in oil palm agroforestry adoption affected by 22 variables. The results showed that peak level adoption and time to reach peak adoption of oil palm agroforestry are 79% and 19 years, respectively. This research suggested that oil palm agroforestry adoption needed external assistance from the government.