What Factors Are Associated With Early Career Attrition Among Orthopaedic Surgeons in the United States?

Background The attrition of medical personnel in the United States healthcare system has been an ongoing concern among physicians and policymakers alike. Prior studies have shown that reasons for leaving clinical practice vary widely and may range from professional dissatisfaction or disability to the pursuit of alternative career opportunities. Whereas attrition among older personnel has often been understood as a natural phenomenon, attrition among early-career surgeons may pose a host of additional challenges from an individual and societal perspective. Questions/purposes (1) What percentage of orthopaedic surgeons experience early-career attrition, defined as leaving active clinical practice within the first 10 years after completion of training? (2) What are the surgeon and practice characteristics associated with early-career attrition? Methods In this retrospective analysis drawn from a large database, we used the 2014 Physician Compare National Downloadable File (PC-NDF), a registry of all healthcare professionals in the United States participating in Medicare. A total of 18,107 orthopaedic surgeons were identified, 4853 of whom were within the first 10 years of training completion. The PC-NDF registry was chosen because it has a high degree of granularity, national representativeness, independent validation through the Medicare claims adjudication and enrollment process, and the ability to longitudinally monitor the entry and exit of surgeons from active clinical practice. The primary outcome of early-career attrition was defined by three conditions, all of which had to be simultaneously satisfied ("condition one" AND "condition two" AND "condition three"). The first condition was presence in the Q1 2014 PC-NDF dataset and absence from the same dataset the following year (Q1 2015 PC-NDF). The second condition was consistent absence from the PC-NDF dataset for the following 6 years (Q1 2016, Q1 2017, Q1 2018, Q1 2019, Q1 2020, and Q1 2021), and the third condition was absence from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Opt-Out registry, which tracks clinicians who have formally discontinued enrollment in the Medicare program. Of the 18,107 orthopaedic surgeons identified in the dataset, 5% (938) were women, 33% (6045) were subspecialty-trained, 77% (13,949) practiced in groups of 10 or more, 24% (4405) practiced in the Midwest, 87% (15,816) practiced in urban areas, and 22% (3887) practiced at academic centers. Surgeons not enrolled in the Medicare program are not represented in this study cohort. A multivariable logistic regression model with adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals was constructed to investigate characteristics associated with early-career attrition. Results Among the 4853 early-career orthopaedic surgeons identified in the dataset, 2% (78) were determined to experience attrition between the first quarter 2014 and the same point in 2015. After controlling for potential confounding variables such as years since training completion, practice size, and geographic region, we found that women were more likely than men to experience early-career attrition (adjusted OR 2.8 [95% CI 1.5 to 5.0]; p = 0.006]), as were academic orthopaedic surgeons compared with private practitioners (adjusted OR 1.7 [95% CI 1.02 to 3.0]; p = 0.04), while general orthopaedic surgeons were less likely to experience attrition than subspecialists (adjusted OR 0.5 [95% CI 0.3 to 0.8]; p = 0.01). Conclusion A small but important proportion of orthopaedic surgeons leave the specialty during the first 10 years of practice. Factors most-strongly associated with this attrition were academic affiliation, being a woman, and clinical subspecialization.