China's subtropical deciduous plants are more sensitive to climate change than evergreen plants by flowering phenology

The ongoing climate change-induced shifts in flowering phenology have emerged as a consequential force impacting biodiversity and ecosystems. Despite the globally recognized significance of flowering phenology as a key reproductive attribute, studies in subtropical regions have been relatively fewer, particularly in comparison to temperate and cold regions. Additionally, the nuanced response of deciduous and evergreen plants to climate change remains insufficiently explored. In addressing this gap, we built a phenological model and a generalized linear mixed effect model to assess the differential responses of key flowering phenological traits, that is, first flowering date (FFD), peak flowering date (PFD), end of flowering date (EFD), and flowering duration (FD), to climate factors (temperature and precipitation) between deciduous and evergreen plants. We observed distinct responses in flowering phenological traits to climate change between deciduous and evergreen plants. Specifically, the advancement of FFD, PFD, and EFD in deciduous in response to temperature rise exceeded that in evergreen plants. FD in evergreen plants exhibited a stronger extension to temperature increase compared to deciduous. Conversely, the phenological change of evergreen plants in response to decreasing precipitation was greater than that of deciduous ones. Since temperature is a decisive climatic factor in affecting phenological changes, climate change-induced advances in flowering phenology of deciduous plants are still larger than evergreen plants. Projections from our phenological model under future climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5) indicate a continuous enlargement of difference in flowering phenology between deciduous and evergreen plants, with this trend escalating into the future (2100>2070>2050>2030). The larger extension in FD of evergreens to climate change suggests a potential increase in their proportion within subtropical forest communities relative to deciduous plants. These insights contribute significantly to our understanding of the intricate dynamics of climate-induced changes in subtropical plant ecosystems.