Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Red Sea State, Eastern Sudan

This paper presents the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of Red Sea state in the eastern region of Sudan, located adjacent to the Red Sea gulf and in the most active earthquake zone in Sudan. This region has significant economic importance, not just for the country, but for the entire East African region. As such, appropriate consideration for the seismic risk on structures is required. Data on seismic events and sources were collected, and an updated catalog was compiled from different agencies. A tectonic map of the region was prepared, and based on the spatial distribution of earthquakes, we divided the area into three seismic source zones. As regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are unavailable, not unlike in many parts of Africa, two GMPEs suitable for our study area were used with a logic tree framework. Hazard maps for variation of the PGA and Sa at 0.1 s and 1 s are shown. The PGA for a 50-year return period considering 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance varies from 0.286 g to 0.4 g, respectively, and the highest hazard was seen near the border with Eritrea. The results will be invaluable in risk mitigation and future regional infrastructure development planning.