Vulnerability of the Cerrado-Atlantic Forest ecotone in the Espinhaco Range Biosphere Reserve to climate change

Using a predictive distribution modeling approach, we investigated the expansion and contraction cycles of the Cerrado-Atlantic Forest ecotone in the Espinhaco Range Biosphere Reserve (Southeast Brazil). We selected points of fragment occurrence and a set of species to generate models at the community level with overlapping species. We used the Maxent algorithm to build the models in five time scenarios: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Middle Holocene (MID), historical (1970-2000), and optimistic and pessimistic projections for the end of the century (2081-2100).The models indicated a wide area of environmental suitability for the ecotone that occurs predominantly in the Espinhaco Meridional. Contrary to the hypothesis of the Pleistocene Arch, our results showed that during the LGM, the suitability areas of the forests increased, possibly due to a colder and humid climate. Climatic (precipitation and temperature) and topographic variables significantly contributed to the forest formation in the Cerrado. Our results show that during the MID, forests began shrinking; after that period, forest areas began growing again with the resumption of warmer and humid conditions. Conversely, with the warming of the atmosphere and the reduction in precipitation in a pessimistic future, the community model indicated that forests might shrink in areas of the Atlantic Domain. The stacked species model demonstrated greater resilience to future changes, suggesting that ecotones may have the potential to rehabilitate adjacent ecoclimatic regions.