Risk of exacerbation and mortality in asthma: a 10-year retrospective financial database analysis of the Hungarian Health Insurance Fund

Introduction Asthma is the most prevalent obstructive pulmonary disease, with drastically improved treatment options over the past decades. However, there is still a proportion of patients with suboptimal level of asthma control, leading to multiple hospitalisation due to severe acute exacerbation (SAE) and earlier death. In our study, we aimed to assess the risk of SAEs and mortality in patients who suffered an SAE. Methods The database of the National Health Insurance Fund was used to retrospectively analyse the data of all asthmatic patients who had been hospitalised for an SAE between 2009 and 2019. We used a competing risk model to analyse the effect of each exacerbation on the risk of further SAEs with age, sex, Charlson index and the number of severe and moderate exacerbations included as covariates. Result Altogether, 9257 asthmatic patients suffered at least one exacerbation leading to hospitalisation during the study time. The majority (75.8%) were women, and the average age was 58.24 years. Most patients had at least one comorbidity. 3492 patients suffered at least one further exacerbation and 1193 patients died of any cause. In the competing risk model, each SAE increased the risk of further exacerbations (HR=2.078-7.026; p<0.0001 for each case) but not death. The risk of SAEs was also increased by age (HR=1.008) female sex (HR=1.102) and with the number of days of the first SAE (HR=1.007). Conclusions Even though asthma is generally a well-manageable disease, there still are many patients who suffer SAEs that significantly increase the risk of further similar SAEs.