A mathematical model of the within-host kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies following COVID-19 vaccination

Compelling evidence continues to build to support the idea that SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody (NAb) levels in an individual can serve as an important indicator of the strength of protective immunity against infection. It is not well understood why NAb levels in some individuals remain high over time, while in others levels decline rapidly. In this work, we present a two-state mathematical model of within-host NAb dynamics in response to vaccination. By fitting only four host-specific parameters, the model is able to capture individual-specific NAb levels over time as measured by the AditxtScoreTM for NAbs. The model can serve as a foundation for predicting NAb levels in the long-term, understanding connections between NAb levels, protective immunity, and breakthrough infections, and potentially guiding decisions about whether and when a booster vaccination may be warranted.