Insights into the nutritional prevention of macular degeneration based on a comparative topic modeling approach

Topic modeling and text mining are subsets of natural language processing (NLP) with relevance for conducting meta-analysis (MA) and systematic review (SR). For evidence synthesis, the above NLP methods are conventionally used for topic-specific literature searches or extracting values from reports to automate essential phases of SR and MA. Instead, this work proposes a comparative topic modeling approach to analyze reports of contradictory results on the same general research question. Specifically, the objective is to identify topics exhibiting distinct associations with significant results for an outcome of interest by ranking them according to their proportional occurrence in (and consistency of distribution across) reports of significant effects. Macular degeneration (MD) is a disease that affects millions of people annually, causing vision loss. Augmenting evidence synthesis to provide insight into MD prevention is therefore of central interest in this article. The proposed method was tested on broadscope studies addressing whether supplemental nutritional compounds significantly benefit macular degeneration. Six compounds were identified as having a particular association with reports of significant results for benefiting MD. Four of these were further supported in terms of effectiveness upon conducting a follow-up literature search for validation (omega-3 fatty acids, copper, zeaxanthin, and nitrates). The two not supported by the follow-up literature search (niacin and molybdenum) also had scores in the lowest range under the proposed scoring system. Results therefore suggest that the proposed method's score for a given topic may be a viable proxy for its degree of association with the outcome of interest, and can be helpful in the systematic search for potentially causal relationships. Further, the compounds identified by the proposed method were not simultaneously captured as salient topics by state-of-the-art topic models that leverage document and word embeddings (Top2Vec) and transformer models (BERTopic). These results underpin the proposed method's potential to add specificity in understanding effects from broad-scope reports, elucidate topics of interest for future research, and guide evidence synthesis in a scalable way. All of this is accomplished while yielding valuable and actionable insights into the prevention of MD.