Air pollution in industrial clusters: A comprehensive analysis and prediction using multi-source data

Air pollution is a pressing concern, especially in developing countries, and its impact on the climate, physical health, and overall quality of life cannot be overstated. This study focuses on the Tehran province, Iran, aiming to clarify the role of different industrial activities in emitting air pollution. To achieve this objective, zonal areas spanning 3.2 km were designated for each industrial establishment within the province and subsequently categorized based on their respective activities forming industrial clusters. Five Copernicus Sentinel -5 Precursor vertical column density (VCD) data products, along with several other auxiliary datasets, were utilized to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of major air pollutants, including formaldehyde (HCHO), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and tropospheric ozone (O3), and to forecast their concentration trends within each cluster. The use of the Exponential Smoothing Model (ESM) for forecasting was necessitated by the limited temporal coverage of available datasets from Sentinel -5P. This model, utilizing weighted averages of past observations to predict future values, was deemed suitable for addressing the temporal constraints of the datasets. The spatial analysis revealed three dispersion patterns in the study area: HCHO, CO, and NO2 exhibited island -like patterns, SO2 exhibited spot -like patterns, and tropospheric O3 exhibited topography -influenced patterns. The temporal analysis revealed significant inter -annual patterns and variations in pollutant concentrations among industrial clusters. Average concentrations of CO, NO2, SO2, and O3 reached their peaks during the cooler months of the year, likely attributable to temperature inversions and heightened usage of heating components, leading to increased combustion of fossil fuels. In contrast, peak levels of HCHO were observed during warmer months, a trend that may be attributed to intensified photochemical processes resulting from the heightened intensity of solar radiation. According to the ESM results, the concentration of HCHO above lime/plaster factories, the concentration of CO above petroleum refineries, power plants, and asphalt/sand factories, and the concentration of SO2 and NO2 above all studied clusters are forecasted to increase until 2025. In contrast, the tropospheric O3 concentration is expected to decrease during the same period. The methodology utilized in this study can be applied to other regions to identify major sources of air pollution and predict future trends.