Scenario Reconstruction Model for Wind and Photovoltaic Power Considering Spatio-temporal Correlation and Credibility

In the new power system, the viability of planning scheme depends largely on the suitability of the wind and photovoltaic (WP) output scenario. A scenario reconstruction model for wind and photovoltaic power considering the spatio-temporal correlation and credibility is proposed in this paper. The probability density of scenario about each moment is obtained by kernel density estimation. The Copula function is used to obtain the WP output correlation and generate the reconstructed scenario in each season. The credibility of WP output from historical data and reconstructed data are calculated respectively. It can be obtained from the credibility comparison results that the scenario reconstruction model can fully reflect the real situation.