Analyzing past and future trends in Pakistan's groundwater irrigation development: implications for environmental sustainability and food security

Since the last four decades, groundwater irrigation has played a critical role in improving crop production and rural livelihoods. However, the flawed policies have allowed farmers to install private tube wells relentlessly, resulting in a slew of water quality and environmental issues. This study aims to investigate the key trends in temporal development of groundwater irrigation and its consequences in Pakistan. The dataset, which spanned 38 years (1981 to 2018), included variables such as the number of tube wells, wheat area and production, farm size, total cultivated area, and total irrigated area in Punjab province. Our results show that, while the number of government-installed tube wells has decreased over time, the number of private tube wells has increased by 579% since 1981. About 85% of these privately owned tube wells are diesel tube wells, while the remaining 15% are electric tube wells. The ARDL regression results show that groundwater development, as a result of growth in private tube wells, has significantly aided wheat production in both the short and long run. However, the results of ARIMA model show that, in the absence of any regulatory mechanism to limit private tube well growth, the number of private tube wells in Punjab will increase by 43% over the next two decades, potentially jeopardizing the country's groundwater sustainability and food security. To ensure the sustainability of groundwater use, farmers' incomes, and the food security of the population, there is an urgent need to devise policy options to limit the growth of probate tube wells in the province. In addition, the new regulations should consider the equity implications and the economic shock to poor farms and households.