Carbon peak prediction and emission reduction pathways exploration for provincial residential buildings: Evidence from Fujian Province

As the preeminent carbon emitter globally, China's endeavor to peak carbon emissions by 2030 is crucial for ecological preservation and sustainable development. The carbon emissions from buildings account for approximately half of China's total carbon emissions. Due to regional heterogeneity among different provinces, it's imperative to conduct research on provincial residential building carbon emissions. Fujian Province, as China's first ecological civilization pilot area, urgently needs to propose effective emission reduction recommendations. This study employs a Kaya-LMDI-SD-MC framework to systematically analyze and dynamically predict peak carbon emissions from residential buildings in Fujian, as well as to explore the emission reduction pathways. Results show that (1) GP emerges as the dominant positive driver, contributing 10.8305 mt and with a remarkable rate of 161.38 %, contrasted by EG as the most pronounced negative influence with a 99.68 % contribution. (2) Although none of the assessed scenarios met the peak emission targets, BDS is identified as the most viable, projecting residential building carbon emissions in 2030 to be 35.42 mt. (3) Dynamic simulations indicate a 90 % probability that Fujian's 2030 emissions will span 35.75 to 38.24 mt, peaking around 37.00 mt. Overall, the study provides actionable policy recommendations, offering a foundational reference for China's provincial carbon management, with broader implications for global peak carbon initiatives, and contributing to the development of sustainable cities and society.