Pain catastrophizing and risk of progression to widespread pain among patients with chronic low back pain: A retrospective cohort study

Background: Chronic low back pain often progresses to widespread pain. Although many factors are associated with progression, their roles in contributing to chronic widespread pain (CWP) are often unclear.Objective: To determine if pain catastrophizing is an independent risk factor for CWP.Design: Retrospective cohort study within a national pain research registry from April 2016 through August 2022.Methods: A total of 1111 participants with chronic low back pain, but without CWP, were included. Participants were followed at quarterly intervals for up to 48 months to measure CWP risk. Survival analyses involved Kaplan-Meier plots and the Cox proportional hazards model to measure CWP risk according to pain catastrophizing and subscale scores for rumination, magnification, and helplessness.Results: Crude CWP risks for moderate pain catastrophizing (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.54-2.95; P < 0.001) and high pain catastrophizing (HR, 3.98; 95% CI, 2.95-5.35; P < 0.001) were each elevated in comparison with low pain catastrophizing. Adjusted CWP risks for moderate pain catastrophizing (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.27-2.53; P < 0.001) and high pain catastrophizing (HR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.98-4.02; P < 0.001) remained elevated in analyses that controlled for potential confounders. Corresponding results were observed in the survival analyses involving rumination, magnification, and helplessness.Conclusions: Pain catastrophizing appears to be an independent risk factor for progression to CWP among patients with chronic low back pain. These findings provide a rationale for interventions aimed at reducing pain catastrophizing, including rumination, magnification, and helplessness, among patients with chronic low back pain.