Impacts of the world's largest afforestation program (Three-North Afforestation Program) on desertification control in sandy land of China

In order to control the desertification, large-scale afforestation programs have been attempted worldwide. Among them, China initiated the world's largest afforestation program, Three-North Afforestation Program (TNAP, 1978-2050), in which the afforestation in sandy land has been questioned during the first 40 years. In fact, the contribution of the TNAP to vegetation establishment and its effectiveness in desertification control still remain unclear, which limited the further construction of the program. To answer the questions, we detected the dynamics of vegetation distribution (forest, shrubland, and grassland) and desertification status (slight, moderate, severe, and extremely severe) during 1978-2017 in the sandy land (45.5 million ha), by visual interpretation of 5-period remote sensing images with validation based on 3,100 sample plots from field surveys and 15,175 sample plots from the National Forest Resource Inventory. Vegetation degradation was identified by analysis combining the trends of net primary productivity and precipitation use efficiency. By Geographical Detector model, the driving forces of vegetation degradation (climate change, human activities, vegetation type, and sandy land type) were ranked and the contributions of the influential factors (climate change, human activities, and vegetation dynamics) to desertification changes were estimated. The results showed that for the 40 years, vegetation coverage increased by 0.5%, with increasing 113.8% and 338.8% of forest and shrubland, but decreasing 9.0% of grassland. Desertification area had little change while the overall intensity decreased. The TNAP contributed to desertification dynamics by 10.3%, which is lower than expected. Vegetation type was the dominant factor of vegetation degradation in general. Forest is less suitable for afforestation in sandy land than shrubland and grassland because of its lower stand establishment rate, higher degradation rate, and less contribution to desertification control. Thus, adjusting vegetation type to match local conditions (e.g., use shrub-land, grassland, and native species) and improving the vegetation resistance (e.g., transform monoculture forests into mixed forests, and make proper proportion for forest, shrubland, and grassland) was suggested. Our study provided specific and feasible strategies for further planning and implementation of TNAP, and references for vegetation restoration of sandy lands worldwide.