Decoupling and driving analysis of carbon emissions in China: Evidence from five national-level urban agglomerations

Urban agglomerations are significant contributors of greenhouse gases, and their transition towards low-carbon development will aid in achieving China's carbon neutrality objective. This study provides a decoupling index that assesses the level of separation between economic development and carbon emissions in five national urban agglomerations. In addition, the double fixed-effect STIRPAT and mediation effect models are utilized to test the impact factors and potential mechanisms of carbon emission efficiency (CEE). Results show that urban agglomerations are in a state of weak decoupling, yet achieving strong decoupling poses a challenge. The CEE is significantly varied across different regions and remains inefficient overall. The urban agglomeration with the highest CEE is the Pearl River Delta, with an average of 0.70. Moreover, the industrial structure represents a significant mediating effect in the relationship between economic growth and CEE. Technological innovation, opening up level, foreign direct investment, fiscal intervention and energy intensity negatively impact CEE. Finally, this paper proposes several recommendations.