Abrupt sub-seasonal rainfall variability over India during summer monsoon 2021: Interaction between midlatitude and tropical circulation

The Indian subcontinent witnessed abnormal subseasonal rainfall variations during the summer monsoon season 2021 with abrupt change (54%) in rainfall from August to September. According to India Meteorological Department, in August Indian landmass received 81% rainfall of its long period average (LPA), which is lowest since 2002. On the other hand, anomalously high rainfall (+ 35% of its LPA) was received in September. The physical mechanisms responsible for such unusual changes in monthly/subseasonal rainfall are unravelled in this study. In August 2021, the southward displacement of Asian jet (SWDAJ) corroborated by westward and northwestward extension of the Western north Pacific (WNP) anticyclone induced moisture divergence over the monsoon trough region and northwestern parts of India are mainly responsible for the deficit rainfall. In the East Asian region, strong low-level westerly wind anomalies in the northern flank of WNP anticyclone couples with the upper-level westerlies associated with SWDAJ and the resulting interaction due to the barotropic-baroclinic coupling maintains WNP circulation. Apart from WNP anticyclone, anomalous Sea Surface Temperature warming over the southeast equatorial Indian Ocean also contributed to the suppressed rainfall over India. In contrast to August, during September the northward displacement of the Asian jet and associated anomalous upper-level anticyclone over northwest India linked to the mid-latitude wave train emanating from the northeast Atlantic contributed to enhanced rainfall over northwest India. Anomalous upper-level high over central Asia/ northwest of India increased the moist baroclinic instability over northwest India, and enhanced rainfall there. The Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model based on May initial conditions is some extent predicted rainfall change from August and September 2021 over India with much lesser magnitude. Inability of the model in capturing the changes in Asian jet, midlatitude wave train and associated teleconnections/interactions to Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall limits its prediction skill. Further, the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) models also could predict the correct sign of ISM rainfall anomaly in August and September, with May initial conditions, but failed to capture the spatial patterns, which needs further investigation.