System dynamics analysis of the coordinated development for urban agglomerations in western China

This research paper develops and validates a simulation model for the coordinated development of urban agglomerations in the western region of China using system dynamics. Our approach involves a methodical analytical process, including defining the system boundaries, establishing causal relationships, creating a system structure flow diagram, identifying system parameters, and analyzing model effectiveness. Specifically, the system's parameters can be modified using 11 moderating variables and organized in various combinations to simulate the expected outcomes of six scenarios: maintaining the status quo, promoting urbanization, fostering economic growth, enhancing social development, protecting resources and the environment, and implementing balanced development schemes. Ultimately, the simulation analysis concludes that the "balanced development scheme (2020-2026)-social construction scheme (2027-2028)-balanced development scheme (2029-2030)" is the most effective approach for achieving coordinated development in the western urban agglomeration. Based on the above studies, recommendations for promoting the coordinated development of western urban agglomerations are presented, focusing on addressing deficiencies and enhancing coordination.