Global survey shows planners use widely varying sea-level rise projections for coastal adaptation

被引:9
|
作者
Hirschfeld, Daniella [1 ]
Behar, David [2 ]
Nicholls, Robert J. [3 ]
Cahill, Niamh [4 ,5 ]
James, Thomas [6 ]
Horton, Benjamin P. [7 ,8 ]
Portman, Michelle E. [9 ]
Bell, Rob [10 ,11 ]
Campo, Matthew [12 ]
Esteban, Miguel [13 ]
Goble, Bronwyn [14 ]
Rahman, Munsur [15 ]
Addo, Kwasi Appeaning [16 ]
Chundeli, Faiz Ahmed [17 ]
Aunger, Monique [18 ]
Babitsky, Orly [9 ]
Beal, Anders [19 ]
Boyle, Ray [20 ]
Fang, Jiayi [21 ]
Gohar, Amir [22 ]
Hanson, Susan [3 ,23 ]
Karamesines, Saul [1 ]
Kim, M. J. [24 ]
Lohmann, Hilary [25 ]
McInnes, Kathy [26 ]
Mimura, Nobuo [27 ]
Ramsay, Doug [28 ]
Wenger, Landis [1 ]
Yokoki, Hiromune [29 ]
机构
[1] Utah State Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Environm Planning, 4005 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322 USA
[2] San Francisco Publ Util Commiss, San Francisco, CA USA
[3] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England
[4] Natl Univ Ireland, Dept Math & Stat, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland
[5] Maynooth Univ, Irish Climate Anal & Res UnitS ICARUS, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland
[6] Geol Survey Canada, Nat Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
[7] Nanyang Technol Univ, Earth Observ Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
[8] Nanyang Technol Univ, Asian Sch Environm, Singapore, Singapore
[9] Technion Israel Inst Technol, MarCoast Ecosyst Integrat Lab, IL-32000 Haifa, Israel
[10] Bell Adapt Ltd, Hamilton 3210, New Zealand
[11] Univ Waikato, Sch Social Sci, Environm Planning Programme, Hamilton, New Zealand
[12] Rutgers State Univ, Edward J Bloustein Sch Planning Publ Policy, New Brunswick, NJ USA
[13] Waseda Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Tokyo, Japan
[14] Oceanog Res Inst, Durban, South Africa
[15] Bangladesh Univ Engn & Technol BUET, Inst Water & Flood Management IWFM, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
[16] Univ Ghana, Accra, Ghana
[17] Sch Planning & Architecture, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh, India
[18] Geol Survey Canada, Lands & Minerals Sect, Nat Resources Canada, 601 Booth St, Ottawa, ON, Canada
[19] Woodrow Wilson Int Ctr Scholars, Washington, DC USA
[20] Univ Calif Berkeley, Coll Environm Design, Berkeley, CA USA
[21] Hangzhou Normal Univ, Inst Remote Sensing & Earth Sci, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Hangzhou 311121, Peoples R China
[22] Univ West England, Bristol, Avon, England
[23] Univ Southampton, Fac Engn & Phys Sci, Boldrewood Campus,Burgess Rd, Southampton, Hants, England
[24] Minist Oceans & Fisheries Affairs, Busan, South Korea
[25] Dept Planning & Nat Resources, St Croix, VI USA
[26] UNSW Australia, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[27] Ibaraki Univ, Global & Local Environm Co Creat Inst, Ibaraki, Japan
[28] Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Auckland, New Zealand
[29] Ibaraki Univ, Dept Civil Architectural & Environm Engn, Ibaraki, Japan
来源
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | 2023年 / 4卷 / 01期
基金
爱尔兰科学基金会; 新加坡国家研究基金会;
关键词
CLIMATE; INFRASTRUCTURE; INFORMATION; FUTURE; HARD;
D O I
10.1038/s43247-023-00703-x
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Including sea-level rise (SLR) projections in planning and implementing coastal adaptation is crucial. Here we analyze the first global survey on the use of SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Two-hundred and fifty-three coastal practitioners engaged in adaptation/planning from 49 countries provided complete answers to the survey which was distributed in nine languages - Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese and Spanish. While recognition of the threat of SLR is almost universal, only 72% of respondents currently utilize SLR projections. Generally, developing countries have lower levels of utilization. There is no global standard in the use of SLR projections: for locations using a standard data structure, 53% are planning using a single projection, while the remainder are using multiple projections, with 13% considering a low-probability high-end scenario. Countries with histories of adaptation and consistent national support show greater assimilation of SLR projections into adaptation decisions. This research provides new insights about current planning practices and can inform important ongoing efforts on the application of the science that is essential to the promotion of effective adaptation. Coastal practitioners in countries with longer histories and more national support show greater assimilation of sea level rise projections in adaptation planning, according to quantitative and qualitative analysis of a global survey.
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页数:9
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