How Did the Land Contract Disputes Evolve? Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Land contracting is an important system in China. As we know, farmers and agricultural organizations acquire land management rights from collective economic organizations to carry out agricultural production. Over the past few decades, it has proved to make a huge contribution to food security and agricultural development in China. However, as land values increased, landowners, contractors, and operators were increasingly in competition over land interests and, as a result, the number of land contract disputes has rapidly increased. Land contract disputes are not only involved in social and economic issues but also related to government management and grassroots governance. Studying the temporal and spatial changes of disputes is the premise to deal with this subject. Based on the data of China Judgment Online from 2016 to 2021, this paper used descriptive statistical methods, spatial analysis tools, and Markov Chains to reveal the temporal evolution characteristics, spatial distribution trends, and grade transfer tendency of land contract disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB). The results showed the following: (1) From 2016 to 2021, the number of land contract disputes in the YEB increased sharply and then decreased gradually; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, land contract disputes were significantly clustered, and the level of clustering has increased in volatility. Meanwhile, the agglomeration area has continuously transferred; (3) There existed the "club convergence effect" and "spatial spillover effect" in the process of dispute grade transfer, but the overall trend was to change for the better. This study attempted to comprehensively describe the changes in land contract disputes in the YEB, and the results would serve as a useful reference for relevant regions to explore the differentiated paths to deal with land contract disputes.