Reliability-based assessment of ship hull girder ultimate strength

A reliability-based approach is presented to investigate the effects of structural and load uncertainties on the reliability estimation of ship hull girders. Structural uncertainties included randomness in material properties, geometric properties, initial geometric imperfections, and corrosion behavior. Load uncertainties included statistical uncertainties, model uncertainties, environmental uncertainties, and uncertainties related to nonlinearity. The hull girder ultimate strength was calculated using Smith's method, and the probabilistic density function was evaluated by employing Monte Carlo simulations. In the load estimation, the still water bending moment and wave-induced bending moment were calculated using a simplified formula of the International Association of Classification Societies-Common Structural Rules code and then modified with load parameters. The reliability index was estimated using a first-order reliability method considering the operating time, the duration of the ship in the alternate hold loading condition, and the severity of the corrosion rate. As a result, sagging conditions dominated the collapse mode. The reliability indexes were obtained for the observed cases, and the viability of the ship was assessed accordingly.