Forecast Skill of the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook 2008-2022

被引：4
|
作者：
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward [1 ]
Bushuk, Mitchell [2 ]
Massonnet, Francois [3 ]
Hamilton, Lawrence C. [4 ]
Bitz, Cecilia M. [1 ]
Meier, Walter N. [5 ]
Bhatt, Uma S. [6 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[2] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA
[3] Univ Catholique Louvain UCL, Earth & Life Inst ELI, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res TECLIM, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium
[4] Univ New Hampshire, Sociol Dept, Durham, NH USA
[5] Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, CIRES, Boulder, CO USA
[6] Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK USA
来源：
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2023年 / 50卷 / 06期
基金：
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词：
SEASONAL PREDICTION; INITIAL CONDITIONS; PREDICTABILITY; ENSEMBLE; EXTENT;
D O I：
10.1029/2022GL102531
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
We assess the skill of forecasts of Arctic September sea ice in the Sea Ice Outlook over 2008-2022. The multi-model median June initialized forecast of September sea ice extent (SIE) is slightly more skilled (RMSE = 0.48 million km(2)) than a damped anomaly forecast, but July and August initialized forecasts (RMSE = 0.52 and 0.36 million km(2) respectively) do not beat this benchmark. The skill of individual dynamical and statistical SIE forecasts is lower than the multi-model median forecast skill. Overall skill is lower than expected from retrospective forecasts. Several forecasts initialized in early September 2021 and 2022 imply physically improbable values. Spatial forecasts of sea ice concentration show multi-model forecast skill and an improvement in individual forecast skill in recent years. Initial conditions show large spread in sea ice volume and a positive correlation between initialized sea ice volume and September SIE forecast. Summer weather has an impact on forecast error.
引用
收藏
页数：10
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