Increased Grain Crop Production Intensifies the Water Crisis in Northern China

Growing crop production increases agricultural water consumption (AWC), but whether these two factors are matched in northern and southern China in the past two decades remains controversial. Here we used a remote sensing-based water-carbon coupling model combined with satellite observations to quantify the crop production, AWC, and water deficit changes in China over 2003-2018. We show that in northern China, crop production and AWC significantly (p < 0.05) increased, mainly due to planting area expansion, and the increasing rates were 2.6 and 6.2 times greater than those in southern China. The increasing irrigation demand in northern China greatly reduced the availability of stored terrestrial water and could not be met by the agricultural water supply in the next two decades. Our results show that the conflict between the limited agricultural water supply and the increasing irrigation demand cannot be resolved by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and better management in water resources and crop production is needed to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.