Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Middle-Upper Reaches of the Weihe River Basin, China

This study calibrated and downscaled data from four scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to drive the distributed hydrological model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Hereafter, this study systematically quantified the changes in streamflow under future climatic conditions in the middle-upper reaches of the Weihe River Basin. The results show that, compared with the base period (1991-2000), the low-emission SSP1-2.6 scenarios resulted in future streamflow reductions to values less than those recorded in the baseline period. Furthermore, the same is true for medium and high-emission SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 emission scenarios, streamflow in the 2030s, 2040s, 2050s and 2060s will be reduced by 40%, 50%, 31%, and 38%, respectively. Under the SSP3-7.0 emission 12 scenarios, streamflow will decrease by 44%, 20%, 34%, and 7% in the 2023s, 2040s, 2050s and 2060s, separately. These results supply support for water resource management and water use in the Kuan-chung Plain in the future climate change.